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Record in the Commens Bibliography. Retrieved from http://www.commens.org/bibliography/manuscript/peirce-charles-s-1903-lowell-lectures-1903-sixth-lecture-probability-ms-r, 06.12.2019.

Type:

Manuscript

Title:

Lowell Lectures. 1903. Sixth Lecture. Probability

Manuscript Id:

MS [R] 472

Year:

1903

Abstract / Description:

**Robin Catalogue:**

A. MS., 2 notebooks, G-1903-2a, pp. 2-130.

Published, in part, as 6.88-97 (pp. 8-62). Omitted: the relationship between logic and mathematics; independence of logic from metaphysics but not vice versa (pp. 2-7). Doctrine of chances: reference of the word “chance,” in all its meanings, to variety; chance not a matter of ignorance but of the immense diversity of the universe; the tendency of this diversity to grow into uniformities; the conception of the “long run”; mathematical theory of probabilities; probability as requiring some objective meaning; CSP’s advice to stop talking of probabilities in connection with the doctrine of chances and to talk instead of ratios of frequency; the difficulty most people have of understanding why it is not logically impossible that an event whose probability is zero should nevertheless occur; and, finally, Hume on miracles (pp. 62-130).

Keywords:

Metaphysics, Logic, Chance, Uniformity, Variety, Necessitarianism, Simon Newcomb, Law of Nature, Law, Evolution, St. Augustine, Boëthius, Cause, Fact, Aristotle, Hobbes, Leibniz, Kant, Existence, Duns Scotus, Thomas Reid, Past, Future, Time, Habit, Ignorance, Insurance, Diversity, Doctrine of Chances, Long Run, Denumeral Collection, Probability, Gregor Mendel, Pierre Simon Laplace, Ratio of Frequency, Hume, Miracle

Language:

English